How Will Sammy Watkins Do in Year One?

Offensive rookies in the NFL don’t usually make an immediate impact. This is especially true with the wide receiver position as it takes time to develop chemistry with a QB and learn the nuances of the playbook or routes in general. On the other hand, there are guys who have amazing rookie seasons and make team executives look like geniuses for drafting them.

Could Sammy Watkins go over 1,000 yards receiving as a rookie? (Photo Credit: Bill Wippert/AP)

So as excited as I am to have Sammy Watkins in a Bills jersey, I think it’s time I try to figure out which group he’ll fall into by taking a look at the rookie seasons of some comparable wide receivers in their respective rookie seasons. I tried to use guys who Watkins drew comparisons to, were picked in the first round, had high production coming out of college or were on teams with inexperienced (2 years or fewer) starting QBs.

Name	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st
Calvin Johnson	15	48	756	15.8	50.4	49	4	12	1	38
Percy Harvin	15	60	790	13.2	52.7	51	6	12	3	42
Dez Bryant	12	45	561	12.5	46.8	46	6	8	3	27
A.J. Green	15	65	1,057	16.3	70.5	58	7	19	7	43
Julio Jones	13	54	959	17.8	73.8	80	8	16	7	34
Torrey Smith	16	50	841	16.8	52.6	74	7	14	4	34
Justin Blackmon	16	64	865	13.5	54.1	81	5	9	2	41
Michael Floyd	16	45	562	12.5	35.1	53	2	6	1	26
Kendall Wright	15	64	626	9.8	41.7	38	4	6	0	38
Tavon Austin	13	40	418	10.5	32.2	81	4	5	2	17
Keenan Allen	15	71	1,046	14.7	69.7	43	8	16	1	54
DeAndre Hopkins	16	52	802	15.4	50.1	66	2	12	2	38
Cordarrelle Patterson	16	45	469	10.4	29.3	79	4	7	1	19
Robert Woods	14	40	587	14.7	41.9	57	3	9	2	26
Average	15	49	739	15.1	49.2	61	5	11	3	34

Based on the stats above you have a better idea of realistic expectations for Watkins and can see why the Bills took Watkins so high. If Watkins posts the average numbers from the various players I selected, the Bills will get more production than they did from Stevie Johnson in 3 of his 6 years in Buffalo. That’s if Watkins is just average…

In my opinion, based off his extraordinary college production, speed, ball skills and route running he’ll post numbers a lot better than that. I expect Watkins’ stat line to look something like this after his first season in the NFL.

Name	G	Rec	Yds	Avg	Yds/G	Lng	TD	20+	40+	1st
Sammy Watkins	16	65	1,000	15.4	62.5	74	8	15	5	40

While I’m confident Watkins is capable of even better numbers, he’ll be competing for receptions with Robert Woods as well as Mike Williams. The team also isn’t likely to rely on the pass as this is in an offense that features C.J. Spiller, Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown as a dynamic rushing attack. So let me know what you think Bills Mafia, how will Sammy Watkins do in year one?

How Will Sammy Watkins Do in Year One?

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